Chinese Military Spending: New Year, Same Old Tune

I really wanted to avoid the topic of China's defense spending. It seems more the domain of the paranoid right-wing blogger. Fortunately, at least one publisher is not blowing this China military spending thing out of the water. Time Magazine has a pretty fair article entitled, That Murky Threat from China. Time's conclusion is summed in these lines:

"unlike the old Soviet Union, the Pentagon can't quite cite a clear and present danger. So it's pointing to China's secretiveness as justification for assuming the worst."

Ah, assuming the worst. Is there a better way of scaring up the electorate into voting for you, the one person who stands between freedom, justice and the American way, and the Red Army's tanks rolling through honest American families' cul de sacs? Don't tell anybody, but I used this same quote from Robert Graves' Count Belisarius in my first post. I just really like the quote, and it fits the situation as described by Time, aptly:

"It is well known what happens on such occasions [when a group of people/senators meet to discuss a situation]. The simplest and most obvious conclusion is rejected as unworthy of such experts in wisdom as these ingenious hoary old men, and an obscure alternative is warmly debated and then rejected; finally a most far-fetched and marvelously improper conclusion is found and unanimously accepted."

I can't quite put where I heard that Americans with their TV and video games have the attention span of a cocker-spaniel, but it was probably the liberal media. Somehow this China military buildup scare sounded familiar, not so familiar that the same news would be trumpeted out exactly annually, but maybe annually plus one or two days, or minus one or two days. Well, we’ve got all of these fancy research tools at school, and I decided I'd do some news searches to figure out if this China military buildup is used each year to strike fear into our hearts. Here are the year-by-year headlines from the New York Times, Washington Post, LA Times, Chicago Tribune, and Wall Street Journal:

2008

• NY Times, March 5, "China Plans Steep Increase in Military Spending"
• Washington Post, March 5, "China's Military Budget Reported at $59 Billion; Sharp Buildup Raises Concern in U.S."
• LA Times, Nothing!
• Chicago Tribune, March 5, "Chinese to Boost Military Spending Again"
• Wall Street Journal, March 5, "China's Military Boost May Stir Fear"
  

2007

• NY Times, March 5, "Beijing Accelerates Its Military Spending"
• Washington Post, "China Boosts Military Spending; Senior U.S. Official Presses Beijing to Clarify 'Plans and Intentions'"
• LA Times, March 5, "China announces military budget hike; The nearly 18% increase will fund raises for troops and upgrades to the nation's arsenal, analysts say"
• Chicago Tribune, March 5, "China to boost military budget; U.S. seeks details of 18 percent hike, sharpest in years"
• Wall Street Journal, March 5, "China's Military Buildup Spurs Concerns"
  

2006

• NY Times, March 5, "Chinese Premier Pledges Help for the Rural Poor, Playing Down Growth of Military Spending"
• Washington Post, March 5, "China Plans to Boost Spending in Rural Areas; Goal Is to Curb Growing Unrest" [article ends speculating whether the 14.7% increase is accurate, and whether that spending in rural areas might be going into weapons development]
• LA Times, March 5, "In Deal With India, Bush Has Eye on China" [article about deals with India as hedge against China's increasing military might]
• Chicago Tribune, March 5, "Defense spending to jump 14.7%"
• Wall Street Journal, March 6, "China Defense Outlay To Increase by 14.7%, The Most in 4 Years"
  

2005

• NY Times, March 13, "The Two Faces Of Rising China"
• Washington Post, March 21, "Rice Warns Europe Not to Sell Advanced Weaponry to China" [because we're concerned that they're already spending too much]
• LA Times, March 5, "China Boosts Spending on Military by 12.6%"
• Chicago Tribune, Nothing
• Wall Street Journal, March 22, "Europe Is Likely To Lifting China Embargo --- Arms Decision Is Put Off Due to Protests by the U.S. And Beijing Saber Rattling"
  

2004

• NY Times, Nothing!\Washington Post, March 7, "China Tells Foreigners Not to Aid Activists; Warning Appears Aimed at Dissuading U.S. From Involvement in Taiwan, Hong Kong" [detailing China's spending as connected Taiwan]
• LA Times, March 7, "China to Boost Defense Funds by 12%"
• Chicago Tribune, Nothing!
• Wall Street Journal, March 8, "U.S. Seeks to Defuse Taiwan Standoff"
  

2003

• NY Times, Nothing!
• Washington Post, March 7, "China Backs Europeans On Iraqi Inspections" [in the final paragraph John Pomfret notes that this year saw the lowest growth in military expenditure in 14 years]
• LA Times, Nothing!
• Chicago Tribune, Nothing!
• Wall Street Journal, Nothing!
  

2002

• NY Times, March 7, "China Is Increasing Its Budget For Military Spending by 17.6%"
• Washington Post, March 5, "China Raises Defense Budget Again, Push to Increase Regional Influence Hampered by Army's Struggle to Modernize"
• LA Times, March 7, "China Again Boosts Defense Budget in Bid to Upgrade Military"
• Chicago Tribune, March 5, "China increases defense spending for struggling military"
• Wall Street Journal, March 5, "China to Boost Expenditures On Defense, Other Programs"
  

2001

• NY Times, March 11, "China Sends Its Army Money, and Taiwan a Signal"
• Washington Post, March 6, "China Plans Major Boost In Spending for Military; 'Drastic Changes' Around World Cited"
• LA Times, March 5, "PROBE DISPROVES REPORTS OF IRAQ AID, CHINA SAYS; DIPLOMACY: RESPONDING TO U.S. COMPLAINTS, BEIJING CONTENDS THAT 'SERIOUS INVESTIGATIONS' FOUND NO EVIDENCE TECHNICIANS HELPED BUILD BAGHDAD AIR DEFENSES" [detailing defense spending increases]
• Chicago Tribune, March 7, "CHINA BOOSTS ARMS BUDGET; LARGEST INCREASE IN 20 YEARS SEEN AS MESSAGE TO U.S., TAIWAN"
• Wall Street Journal, March 7, "China Orders Telecom Firms To Cease Business in Iraq --- Move Comes as Nation Boosts military Spending, Warns Against Taiwan Arms Sales"
  

2000

• NY Times, March 19, "War Talk Is Cheap. War Isn't. Keep Talking"
• Washington Post, March 5, "Top Chinese Leader Urges Corruption Crackdown" [article turns into discussion on ties between 13% increase in defense spending and Taiwan]
• LA Times, March 7, "China Projects 7% Annual Growth Amid Restructuring; Asisa: 2000 Budget Also Calls for 13% Hike in Military Spending"
• Chicago Tribune, Nothing!
• Wall Street Journal, March 7, "China Heralds Budget That Trims Deficit" [but obscures real military spending that probably "reaches three times the budgeted figure"]
  

1999

• NY Times, Nothing
• Washington Post, March 5, "China's Premirer Offers Prop for Slow Economy" [but military budget includes double-digit growth]
• LA Times, Nothing
• Chicago Tribune, Nothing
• Wall Street Journal, Nothing
  

1998
Nothing

1997

• Washington Post, March 5, "China Raises Spending For Military"
• Wall Street Journal, March 3, "China Report Backs Industry Reforms and More Aid for Nation's Farmers" [and spending figures given in RMB, but the reporting is still there]
  

1996

• NY Times, March 17, "China's Military Power"
• Chicago Tribune, March 12, "Saber Rattling in Far East"
• Wall Street Journal, March 7, "The Defense of Taiwan"
  

1995
Nothing

1994
Not Enough

1993

• NY Times, March 17, "China Raises Military Budget Despite Deficit"
• LA Times, March 17, "China to Boost Military Spending"
• Chicago Tribune, March 17, "China again raises budget for military"
• Wall Street Journal, March 31, "Security Tensions Rise in Southeast Asia"
  

1992

• NY Times, March 22, "China to Reward Army With 13% Increase in Military Budget"

1991

• NY Times, March 27, "China to Raise Arms Spending Again"
• LA Times, March 27, "China; Defense Spending to Rise 13% in 1991"
• Washington Post, March 27, "China Boosts Arms Budget 12%"
  

1990

• Washington Post, March 22, "China Increases Spending On Military by 15 Percent"

1989

• LA Times, March 25, "China's Military Budget to Drop 6% Despite Officers' Protests"

A military budget drop is probably a good place for me to stop… So, every year for almost the past twenty years we've been told that China's military spending has been increasing at an alarming rate. The tone has shifted from a military buildup to seize Taiwan to a military buildup that threatens the U.S. Thus far, China has not acted upon either...

So what's the deal with these military buildups? Should we really be worried? Is there some sort of tipping point situation here where we won't really notice until it is too late? Does the military buildup really have anything to do with the U.S.?

China does share borders with a bunch of scary places: Burma and its Myanmar military junta, the Kashmir area with ownership in dispute between nuclear-armed states Pakistan & India, Afghanistan, all the other -Stans, plus rampant piracy in the South China Sea. And, China is extending itself into Africa, and the political situation across Africa suggests that it is a good idea to bring lots of guns with you. Brazil's geopolitical problems are minor concerned to the threats in Asia.

Also, China, unlike Europe, is not party to a strong defense treaty, such as NATO. In war, China is on its own and that should give them some justification in building their own military. Not that I ever want to get involved in a war against a Chinese army.