Spheres of Influence: Not This Again...

Interesting Comment & Analysis today by the Financial Times' Beijing bureau chief, Geoff Dyer, Russia could push China closer to the west. Yeah, that's right, an article about whether China will opt to cozy into the sphere of influence of the West or the Sovi..., uh, Russia. I focused on the origins and early years of the Cold War in undergrad, and I thought I was majoring in history. As Mr. Dyer makes exceedingly clear, the implications of Russia's actions in Georgia on US-China relations are fraught with nuance:

Russia takes US eyes off China as bad guy:

With the US economy slumping and China becoming the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, Chinese diplomats are worried that different groups in the US will join forces to slam China. So if Russia returns to being the US’s pin-up villain, that suits Beijing just fine.

But, China doesn't care for President Mikheil Saakashvili:

Mr Saakashvili is the western-educated product of a colour revolution who is lauded by Washington neo-conservatives as a warrior in the battle for democracy. If he is toppled, Beijing will not mourn his departure.

That doesn't mean China would welcome the recognition of tiny breakaway states (think T!b3t, Taiwan, Xinjiang, plus the many border disputes with Bhutan, India, Japan, Malaysia, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Tajikistan, Vietnam, and maybe Brunei):

The biggest problem for China, however, is Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Independence for small break-away provinces is one of the few subjects that turn Chinese diplomats from cool-headed calculators of national self-interest into brittle ideologues.

Western states like to avoid too much controversy:

Europe has long been eyeing more oil and gas deals with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, where China also has significant investments. If instability in the Caucasus scares off European investors, that could create more space for the Chinese.

But, things can't get too hot:

China’s economic success is increasingly fuelled by huge imports of oil and gas that are only going to get larger. Beijing, therefore, does not want to see Russian aggression browbeat a region that is an important energy provider.

Dyer's Conclusion:

China has moved closer to Russia in recent years, but there are clear limits to the alliance that Washington could exploit.