Sunday, May 25, 2008

Posts of the Week: 5/19 - 5/25

Against competitiveness at Free Exchange
Great post:
"There are excellent reasons to improve domestic economic conditions, through investment in infrastructure and education, sound fiscal and monetary policy, and openness to movement of goods and people. It is not the case, however, that failure to be at the top in any of these categories implies loss of wealth or well-being. Mercantilism doesn't apply for human capital any more than it does for trade in goods. Rich neighbours make one rich, provided that one is wililng to interact with them economically.

"Geopolitical concerns there may be, but a strong Europe and a rich Asia are very much in America's best economic interest."
Arbitration Only the First Step at Managing the Dragon

China's Silver Lining at China Environmental Law

Thailand vs China, part II at Silk Road International

Mutual Trust at Managing the Dragon

China's New Labor Law And Why Vietnam Is No Big Thing at China Law Blog

Financing development: a civil society perspective at chinadialogue
Is this an article or a post? Either way, it's good.

Securing Innovation and Patents in China at Securing Innovation
(h/t to IP ThinkTank)

Thursday, May 22, 2008

In China, "High Quality" Goods, Not "Luxury" Goods

A recent article at Knowledge@Wharton, High Risks and High Rewards: China's Fast-changing Luxury Market, examines many facets of China's luxury goods market. China's luxury market is difficult and expensive to break into, sales are low, and the customers are fickle, but last year's sales growth in luxury goods in China and this year's predicted sales growth are the highest in the world.

The article presents two reasons for why China's luxury market is difficult to break into: "unpredictable consumers and rising costs." Chinese consumers purchase luxury goods for two main reasons: "as markers of their success; and because of the high quality." This recent rise of demand for high quality is explained by the author as a result of both the maturing of the Chinese market and anxiety in the China over purchasing luxury items. This anxiety is somewhat demonstrated in the taxes levied by Beijing on luxury goods: 10% consumption tax + 17% VAT + 24% luxury goods tax. The anxiety is even better demonstrated by a hesitancy to refer to luxury goods as such, preferring to call them high quality goods.

Costs for luxury retailers are increasing for the standard bundle of reasons: the rising cost of land, labor and construction, as well as the appreciation of the RMB. With China only accounting for 5% of worldwide luxury sales at €9 billion, the cost of entering the Chinese a major hurdle for lower-tier luxury goods that are unable to afford entering China without a quick return on their investment. Given the scope and rapid growth of the Chinese market, the return for those who make the investment is likely to be huge.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Comment on a Piece from Art HK 08

In 1903 in the US Supreme Court decision of Bleistein v. Donaldson Lithographing Co. (188 U.S. 239, for those who are interested), Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. wrote an opinion with one of the most oft-quoted passages of his quotable career. The Bleistein case involved the copyright of an advertising poster for a circus, and without further ado, here is the passage:
It would be a dangerous undertaking for persons trained only to the law to constitute themselves final judges of the worth of pictorial illustrations, outside of the narrowest and most obvious limits. At the one extreme, some works of genius would be sure to miss appreciation. Their very novelty would make them repulsive until the public had learned the new language in which their author spoke. It may be more than doubted, for instance, whether the etchings of Goya or the paintings of Manet would have been sure of protection when seen for the first time. At the other end, copyright would be denied to pictures which appealed to a public less educated than the judge. Yet if they command the interest of any public, they have a commercial value -- it would be bold to say that they have not an aesthetic and educational value -- and the taste of any public is not to be treated with contempt. It is an ultimate fact for the moment, whatever may be our hopes for a change. That these pictures had their worth and their success is sufficiently shown by the desire to reproduce them without regard to the plaintiffs' rights. (emphasis added)
May 15-18 Hong Kong hosted Art HK 08, an international art fair (h/t to BusinessWeek Slideshow). Here is how BusinessWeek describes the art fair, and the motivating factor:
Though a great city in many respects, Hong Kong has the reputation as being something of a cultural backwater, at least when you stack it up against places like London, Paris, or new York. But the city is trying to burnish its image and hopes that by hosting the Hong Kong International Art Fair it might be able to establish itself as the pre-eminent cultural hub for visual arts in the region. Already it is the world's third-largest art auction market, so there is no question of the city's buying power . . . Art HK 08, which runs May 15-18, is an attempt to kick-start artistic awareness in the city, while attracting newly minted millionaires from China, Taiwan and Korea.
The show's catalogue contains many beautiful examples of art spanning decades in time, and East and West in space. At the risk of exceeding the most obvious and narrowest limits in judging the worth of the works, I'd like to take a short time to comment on what I found to be the most comment worthy piece in the catalogue by a Chinese artist, Bird's Nest No. 3, by Zhou Jun:

The most prominent feature of this photograph is not the Bird's Nest itself, Beijing national Stadium, but the land blanketed in red. It would be no difficult task to BS about the symbolism of red in Chinese, but rather than set myself up for a mistake, I turned to Wikipedia's article on Red, which just happens to have a paragraph on the symbolism of red in Chinese culture:
In China red is the symbol of fire and the south (both south in general and Southern China specifically). It carries a largely positive connotation, being associated with courage, loyalty, honor, success, fortune, fertility, happiness, passion, and summer. In Chinese cultural traditions, red is associated with weddings (where brides traditionally wear red dresses) and red paper is also frequently used to wrap gifts of money or other things. Special red packets called hong bao are specifically used during the Chinese New Year to give monetary gifts. On the more negative end, obituaries are traditionally written in red ink, and to write someone's name in red signals either cutting them out of your life, or that they have died. Red is also associated with both the feminine yin and the masculine yang, depending on the source.
This leaves wide open the possibilities of interpretation for the meaning of the piece. What I find most disturbing is that what would otherwise be a symbol of fertility, a bird's nest, is not painted red, but the land around it is painted red. This might mean that the artist is trying to convey that the land of China itself is serving as the fertile bird's nest for the Beijing National Stadium which has become in many ways the symbol for the 2008 Summer Olympics. Zhou Jun could be trying to show that China itself is symbolic for the sporting virtues of courage, loyalty, honor, success, fortune, passion, and, in this instance, summer.

This is certainly of the most optimistic of interpretations. Much grimmer interpretations can be made in connection with drawing the land upon which the Games shall take place in red. And there certainly are reasons for grimmer interpretations including the death of at least 10 workers in the construction of the Bird's Nest.

Any thoughts? Any other pieces by Chinese artists in the catalogue that you enjoyed more? Did any of you attend Art HK 08?

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

China Economic Review on the Form of Private Equity in China

This month's edition of China Economic Review focuses on private equity in China. The editors have kindly released two of the articles to the public for free, Private equity investment: The real deal, and PE investment about more than just money. The most interesting thing in these articles is probably the test of potential investing targets that the CEO of Crestpac, Shelly Singhal, describes, "The best way to find out how committed they are is to send an email at 10pm and see how long it takes for them to respond." The second most interesting thing, and the one I want to spend a little time with, is the different form of private equity investments in China that comes through in the articles.

The most common form of private equity in China is also the most common form of private equity everywhere else in the world: growth capital in the form of minority investments "in more mature companies that are looking for capital to expand or restructure operations, enter new markets or finance a major acquisition without a change of control of the business [from Wikipedia where it was stated so simply]." One new factor in these investments is developing, and another factor will enter the picture in the next few months.

The developing factor is that for foreign firms to get the bid they are going to increasingly need to bring something more than just money to the table by showing how they can "eradicate inefficiencies and unlock value." Domestic Chinese PE firms, and foreign PE firms are very active in China, and to make an investment the bidding PE firm needs to demonstrate its own value in the transaction.

The other factor that should alter PE for foreign firms is the forthcoming laws that will allow foreign PE firms to make investments in RMB as onshore entities, rather than in US dollars through offshore companies. The inability of firms to operate in RMB has partially contributed to the reason that only one leveraged buyout has happened in China.

Leveraged buyouts, "an acquisition backed by loans secured against the assets of the target company," are common elsewhere in the world, but they have been limited to a single contested instance in China for several reasons:
  • There are a limited number of companies in China willing to give up a controlling stake in their companies.
  • "Foreign exchange controls prevent the use of assets in China to guarantee a loan made outside of China."
  • "Domestic banks are generally unwilling to lend money for" leveraged buyouts.
The China leveraged buyout discussed in the article is slightly contested as being a true China LBO because it involved foreign loans, and the acquisition of an offshore entity that operated a WFOE in China.

The articles also discuss a growing sector of informal private equity funds supported by China's growing ultra-wealthy. Not something most of us will have any access to, but nice to be aware of.

Venture Capital, that well-known subcategory of private equity, takes on a much different form in China than we are familiar with in the US. Rather than taking stakes in tech companies with little or no profits, VCs in China "are making bigger and later-state investments." The article points out that this is allowing VCs to make returns on their money more quickly and with less risk. These VC firms are also "behaving more passively than they do elsewhere," due to government restrictions and the unwillingness of the company founders to give up control. But, this isn't hurting the VC firms' bottom lines as "top-quartile Chinese firms provided the rate of return globally, giving VCs 30-60 times what they had originally invested (emphasis added)."

I highly recommend these articles, they make great reading.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Will Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Take Off?

The Economist thinks: maybe. In Flying the Flag, The Economist examines whether the unique aspects of Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC) and China will allow this newly created commercial airplane manufacturer to succeed where others have failed. The purpose of CACC is to develop a big jet manufacturer with an aim to competing with Airbus and Boeing. The economist warns that "Wrapping a national flag around civil-aviation projects is a recipe for wasting money and dashing dreams," and Embraer of Brazil is the sole success story out of developing economies, but it too was a "cash-devouring horror" for 30 years.

Despite this, The Economist suggests that CACC might succeed where others have failed for several reasons:
  • AVIC I and AVIC II, China's long-standing aircraft manufacturers, soon start producing 4 A320s per month in a joint venture with Airbus. This should provide significant know-how to the Chinese aviation industry.
  • "China's aviation industry has learnt a lot from making increasingly sophisticated parts for Boeing and Airbus over the past 20 years."
  • Though "manufacturing big commercial aircraft has ceased to be a national enterprise," many of the world's supply chains originate in China.
  • Boeing and Airbus "are studiously polite about the prospect of a new rival."
However, the magazine also warns that CACC has a few things going against it:
  • "By the time the Chinese have their A320/737 rival ready, Boeing and Airbus will be selling their next-generation single-aisle planes which will deliver a vast improvement in operating economics."
  • China's airlines are "highly competitive" and "have a record of resisting government pressure to buy planes they do not want."
    • China's airlines would otherwise be the natural market for these likely outdated aircraft.
Wen Jiabo pronounced that "It is the will of the nation and all its people to have a Chinese large aircraft soar into the blue sky." It will be interesting to see whether CACC becomes something more than just a producer of national prestige: a big jet manufacturer able to truly compete with Boeing and Airbus.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Coverage of the Earthquake's Human Tragedy

The numbers are difficult to grasp. Especially at a time when two tragic disasters have struck so close in time and space. This narrated slide show at the Financial Times does an excellent job depicting the loss, grief and tragedy at the human level in Sichuan. China, we wish you well in saving your people, and in minimizing the deaths.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Posts of the Week: 4/28 - 5/4

Final final tomorrow on Corporations. Subsequently, there should be more than two posts a week...

Fondly remembering a deflationary China at Free Exchange

Foreign Companies in China Can't Get No Love at China Law Blog

Regulations in China: Are You Prepared? Are Ready? Are You OK? at All Roads Lead to China

More on China's Different Cost Perspective at Managing the Dragon
Currently reading Mr. Perkowski's book and I enjoyed this post as a sort of addendum to the book. Plus, see further commentary on this issue at China Briefing.

Exporters are complaining loudly at China Financial Markets

Regulating Enterprise in China/China Dispute Resolution at China Law Blog

Natural Resources Defense Council (China) at China Environmental Law

Hong Kong Judgments Enforceable in China and Vice Versa - Almost at China Law Practice Blog

Sometimes, The Markets Just Want To Go Down at Managing the Dragon