Carnegie's Look at US-China Foreign Policy for the Obama Administration

Gotta hand it to President Obama's administration. Choosing Asia for Hilary Clinton's first overseas trip is brilliant. Or it at least satisfies the importance I attach to the region. The most important leg of her trip is the final leg, Beijing. Mrs. Clinton has her work cut out for her in erasing campaign rhetoric and in assuring the CCP that the US is not going to slide into some Smoot-Hawley madness.

President Bush's administration set the bar high in US-China foreign policy emphasizing bilateral concerns and strengthening our economic ties through the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED). Recently, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote a policy brief with foreign policy suggestions for the Obama administration: Avoiding Mutual Misunderstanding: Sino-U.S. Relations and the New Administration by Tianjian Shi with Meredith Wen.

The official summary from the document itself:

• "China policy should be crafted with an understanding of what motivates the Chinese Communist Party's actions and reactions."
• "China expects the United States to lead during the financial crisis and sees its own role as limited to its domestic affairs."
• "The United States would have more success in its political and economic agenda with Beijing if it developed high-level relationships with Chinese leaders and avoided aggressive public language on hot-button issues."
• "The United States should pursue multilateral policies that include China as a responsible stakeholders, especially in regional initiatives."
• "Developing a positive image with Chinese leaders and the public will give the United States valuable political capital in US-China relations."

The three parts of the brief that I found the most interesting are the parts about currency concerns, our weak relationship with Russia, and the importance and utility of the SED.

The authors argue that pressuring China to appreciate the RMB is a waste of political capital. They say that appreciating the RMB will 1) reduce the competiveness of the Chinese economy during economic criss, and 2) force China to purchase less American debt. 1 is bad for China and 2 is bad for the US, thus China's currency stability is best for both at the moment.

US-Russian ties are at a low point. Russia shares a border with China. Russia carries considerable influence in the Middle East, and could be a stronger partner in the 6 Party Talks. The authors argue that if we can repair our relationship with Russia, we can further open the door to success in our bilateral objectives with China.

The SED's importance is that it brings high-level officials together to carry on private discussions to further our mutual economic goals. Too often China is used by US politicians as a target in the mainstream media. The authors argue that US politicians need to cool it, and rely on processes that truly work in dealing with China, and won't encourage China to respond in the war of words:

While the CCP views growing nationalism among its people as a potential threat to stability, to retain the popular mandate it claims the people have granted, the CCP must satisfy the demands of national pride. Confronting China publicly may score points in U.S. domestic politics, but to achieve positive results, officials at the highest level must engage each other and attempt to stay above the domestic fray. Political posturing by both sides has undoubtedly damaged relations between the United States and China in the past and has made measured responses by China difficult. Chinese leaders will be more open to concessions when their legitimacy at home is not at stake.

The report is only 8 pages, and I recommend checking it out!


Sort of unrelated note:
I'm thinking that Mrs. Clinton's trip to Indonesia might prove the most interesting. Lots of Muslim's. President Obama has some history there.