The Economist on China in 2009

In comparison to the substantial coverage of China in last year's The World In, there are only couple of serious articles in this year's edition. Though interesting, I don't find ornithology and Ferris wheel size anxiety the most serious of topics.

Riders on the storm by Pam Woodall
With exports to America only making up 8% of China's GDP, Ms. Woodall predicts that China will break on through to 2010 in good shape. She thinks that 9% growth was unsustainable, and that China's budget surplus will allow infrastructure investments to offset weak exports.

Ms. Woodall does note that despite China manufacturing wages remaining at less than 10% of America's, low-value manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta will continue to close. She draws the proper conclusion from this observation:

This is forcing Chinese manufacturers to move up the value chain, just as those in South Korea and Taiwan did year ago. But this is evidence of success as countries grow richer, not a sign of dwindling competitiveness.

Despite Asia's inflation rate climbing to 8%, Ms. Woodall also predicts that Asia's average inflation rate will drop below 4% for two reasons:

1. Food and energy prices might stabilize at their lower levels.
2. Slower growth will help keep wages under control.

After the Olypmics by James Miles
Mr. Miles predicts greater unrest in China this year. It is the 20th anniversary of one event, the 50th of another, and the Confucianally important 60th anniversary of the founding the PRC. Despite this, the author predicts that the unrest won't be "directed explicitly at one-party rule." Rather, he thinks that unrest was unusually restrained in the lead up to the Olympics, and that the "loosening of the political fetters" will lead to "greater social turbulence." Here's hoping the nation's stability can duck protest like a well flung shoe.